The 2028 Democratic presidential primaries may be more than three years away, but a steady stream of polls is already surfacing, hinting at potential candidates and early frontrunners beginning to take shape.
Democrats lost control of the White House and Senate in the 2024 election, following their loss of the House in the 2022 midterms. With former President Joe Biden withdrawing from the 2024 race late in the cycle and Vice President Kamala Harris failing to defeat President Donald Trump in November, the party now faces an uncertain leadership void.
Although the 2028 election is still nearly four years away, pollsters have begun surveying Democratic voters to gauge their preferences for the future. Early polling indicates a few prominent Democrats emerging as frontrunners, Newsweek reported.
Since the 2024 election, multiple polls have been conducted for the 2028 Democratic primary, all consistently placing Kamala Harris as the frontrunner. Below her, several prominent Democrats are emerging as top contenders.
While none of these Democrats have officially declared a 2028 campaign, the polling offers an early insight into voter preferences.
Harris’ future plans remain uncertain, but there is widespread speculation that she may run for California governor in 2026, as current Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited. Polling indicates she would be the frontrunner if she enters the race.
The latest poll on the 2028 Democratic primary, conducted by Echelon Insights from February 10 to 13 among 443 likely voters, showed Harris leading the field with 36% support.
A previous J.L. Partners/Daily Mail poll, conducted from February 2 to 3 with 500 registered voters, showed Harris leading with 30% support. Meanwhile, a McLaughlin & Associates survey from late January, conducted among 414 likely voters, placed her at 35%.
In all recent polls, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has been a distant second. Echelon Insights recorded him at 10%, while J.L. Partners and McLaughlin & Associates showed him at 8% and 9%, respectively.
Buttigieg previously ran a strong campaign in the 2020 Democratic primary, narrowly winning the Iowa caucuses and tying in the New Hampshire primary. However, he dropped out after Biden’s dominant victory in South Carolina. Following his endorsement of Biden, Buttigieg served as Transportation Secretary from 2020 until the end of Biden’s presidency.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is closely trailing or tied with Buttigieg in recent polling. Echelon Insights places Newsom at 6%, slightly behind the former transportation secretary. In the J.L. Partners survey, the two are tied at 8%, while McLaughlin & Associates ranks Newsom third at 7%.
Left-wing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York is considered one of the top contenders for the 2028 election. According to polls conducted by Echelon Insights and J.L. Partners, she currently has 5 percent support. In a separate survey by McLaughlin & Associates, she received 6 percent.
The surveys feature a broad range of potential candidates, with two consistently ranking higher than most: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was a top contender to be Harris’ running mate, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom Harris ultimately selected for the ticket.
Some unexpected names have also surfaced in recent polls. Billionaire Mark Cuban registered at 3% in the Echelon Insights poll, while ESPN commentator Stephen A. Smith garnered 2% in the McLaughlin & Associates survey.
Despite her top spot in early polling, several Democratic strategists and donors have said they’ve had their fill of Harris and don’t want her to run again for the White House after blowing through more than $1 billion during her truncated 2024 campaign and losing badly to Trump.
Strategist Theryn Bond is one of them, telling Newsmax’s National Report in December, “Please don’t run.”
Host Emma Rechenberg asked: “The Vice president has been instructing advisers and allies to keep her options open. That could be a possible 2028 presidential run or even a run for governor in her home state of California in two years. Harris has reportedly repeating in phone calls, quote, ‘I’m staying in the fight.’ Let’s talk about it now with our political panelists. Theryn Bond joins us now, a Democratic strategist and Luke Ball is a Republican strategist. So two different perspectives here. Is this a good idea for VP Harris to continue her political ambitions?”
“Not to run for president again in 2028, please don’t. I can’t really speak for governor of California. Californians seem to support her significantly. We haven’t yet been able to measure what that support looks like after this current run she just had. That may be the only thing that she — I guess, may make sense for her to consider. But another shot at the presidency, I hope she doesn’t. And if she is relying on those same advisers that advised her this cycle, that’s not who I would listen to,” Bond responded.
